What’s unusual about this photo?
Not an awful lot at first glance – seeing an Obama 08 sticker on a lamp post is probably a very common site.
Except this photo was taken a couple of streets away from where I live (by me).
Unless Barack is running for Bristol City Council as a back-up in case he loses, I can’t see it swinging too many votes.
After all the data from If The World Could Vote seems pretty much in his favour!
Here’s a run down of the latest links relating to the US Elections:
Tomorrow – a small slice of American pie!
Intute: Social Sciences features more Internet resources on the US Election.
This time next week … yep, the finishing post is in sight and there’s just one more week of hard campaigning left before we get to the fun part where we get to count the votes. But isn’t it already over and the in-fighting already starting or is there a genuine tightening of the race?
In general the candidate that is ahead at this point should go on to win the Presidency, but that does not mean a late surge cannot happen or has not happened in the past. The Gallop Poll takes us through some examples from history and looks at how Late Upsets are Rare but Have Happened perhaps most famously in 1980.
Talk of landslides is really ridiculous – try perusing this timeline of US Presidential Election maps and see that there will have to be a major implosion of the Republican vote to be in the same ballpark as the virtual Electoral College wipeouts of 1984 or 1968.
While post-mortems in to the McCain campaign are probably premature, the question of damage limitation is important in terms of stopping Democratic momentum that could lead to a filibuster proof margin in the Senate, if they secure 60 seats – the Republican cause has not been helped by the conviction of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens on corruption charges.
The narrative from the McCain campaign appears to be that the race is tightening, but this does not seem to be backed up by the polls. It has been pretty much dismissed by Nate Silver at 538.com and my own examination of the poll of polls data at Electoral-Vote.com shows the gap growing rather than tightening in the last week.
Getting back to how the campaign is playing out on the web – TechCrunch reports on a make-over for Politics.com which seems a little late in the day and Mashable highlights a few election poll and projection sources, which should be largely familiar to long time readers of this blog.
If 2004 was the blogging election, then it could be argued that 2008 is the YouTube election – or at least the election where online video came to the fore. TechPresident ponders How Much YouTube is Worth to Obama and McCain? before coming to the conclusion that it could be millions of dollars and hundreds of hours of free video views.
Intute: Social Sciences features more Internet resources on the issue of the US election.
With just over a week to go, what you might call “poll fever” is descending on the race for the White House – which polls should be trusted and why? Plus does it matter when real polling ie voting has already begun?
Tracking polls or polls where the same sample for example the same group of voters are followed over time to assess shifts in political preferences – are a vital tool in the pollsters arsenal. FiveThirtyEight.com has a great analysis of eight of the most in/famous tracking polls you may encounter and considers their various strengths and weaknesses.
Gallup analysts have been polling citizens from around the world and their analysis shows that residents of other countries favour Barack Obama by a nearly 4-to-1 margin, however the majority of those surveyed did not express an opinion on the subject.
So much for the perspective of the polling experts, what about an academic viewpoint? Well Stanford University are offering a course on the Geography of U.S. Presidential Elections over the next few weeks, with freely available lectures online – showing that the picture is much more complicated than headline poll numbers may imply and demonstrating that things have certainly changed a lot over time.
… and finally, there’s a timely reminder that early voting has already begun in many states, with estimates that over 30% of votes could be cast before election day – plus there’s no shortage of ways to vote with roadside access for disabled voters, absentee ballots (postal votes) for those who will be away from their home state and even drive through voting for fast food addicted voters!
Intute: Social Sciences features more resources on the issues of polling, voting and the US elections.
Paul Krugman has been awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2008 for his work in the analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity.
The Nobel site includes a press release, academic scientific background information and information for the layman on his work.
The Nobel site features information on previous winners of the prize in Economics, including video interviews and videos of the prize lectures (Krugman will deliver his lecture in December).
Krugman is Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, where he specialises in international trade / finance, urban economics and the study of Japan.
Krugman is perhaps best known outside of Economics circles as a columnist / blogger for the New York Times at The Conscience of a Liberal, where his writings on public policy are widely read.
Krugman spoke as part of the Authors@Google series late last year.
The Unofficial Paul Krugman Archive contains details of his older writings, while users may be interested in some of his writings that are available via EconPapers, although many more papers cite or analyse his work.
Intute: Social Sciences features more Internet resources on the topic of Economics.