10 in a row, Superdelegates and the Republican base

With Barack Obama having won the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries this week, he has racked up 10 wins in a row and won contests in 24 states.

As the Democratic primary process assigns delegates proportionally, Obama’s lead may be pretty much insurmountable, unless Hillary Clinton starts racking up double digit wins in the states to come. More on this from HotLine TV.

The great unknown in the Democratic race is the Superdelegate – these are party grandees who have votes in the nominating process – who may decide which way the nomination goes, if there is a brokered convention.

There is a new site called Superdelegates.org where you can track how they are going to vote, or at least what has been said in public about it. The site also has a Google Earth layer, so there is a state by state visual representation of the data.

Superdelegates.org screenshot

Screenshot via Mashable.com.

On the other side of the ledger, Frank Newport of Gallop looks into the question of whether John McCain is rallying Republicans to his cause. He looks at historic data and concludes that McCain still has work to do if he is to claim the same level of support amongst Republicans as previous presumptive Presidential nominees.

What’s next? Well there is a period of relative calm before Super Tuesday 2 with the primaries in Texas and Ohio on March 4th, which will decide the fate of several hundred delegates and possibly push John McCain over the top to the Republican nomination and push Hillary Clinton out of the Democratic race.

Intute: Social Sciences features more resources on the 2008 US elections – just scroll past the Editor’s Choice selections to see the latest additions.

Advertisements